New research by Vote Leave shows that:

• New figures from the UK Statistics Authority show there were 475,000 live births to mothers from other EU countries between 2005 and 2014, the equivalent of adding a city the size of Manchester to the population. The cost of providing NHS services to those families could be over £1.33bn.

• ‘Rising demand’ for NHS services is one of the principal reasons identified by regulators for the NHS’s forecast £2.4 billion deficit in 2015-2016.

• Net migration from the EU has risen substantially over the last decade, with 1.073 million persons added to the UK population, the equivalent of a city the size of Birmingham.

• GP registrations have increased by 1.5 million in the last three years alone.

• The number of those attending accident and emergency increased by 59% between 2002-2003 and 2014-2015 from 14.0 million to 22.4 million, while the number of those waiting more than four hours to be treated has increased by 228% to 304,000.

• Hospital waiting times have increased, with the proportion of patients waiting less than 18 weeks from referral until treatment in hospital falling from 92.0% in April 2010 to 85.5% in September 2015.

Commenting, Employment Minister Priti Patel said:

'I’m proud that this government has prioritised spending on the NHS under David Cameron. But it is becoming clear that our membership of the EU is putting the NHS under threat. Every week we send £350 million to Brussels – that’s money that could be better invested in helping patients who rely on our NHS. What we get back from the EU is a city the size of Newcastle of new immigrants to the UK every year.

'Our inability to control the number of people entering our country and the impact that it is having on our NHS is absolutely central to this debate. I disagree with the idea that leaving the EU would make the NHS weaker - if anything it would make it stronger. We will be talking a lot about the NHS in this campaign because we believe that a leave vote is vital if we are to protect the NHS for future generations.

'Current levels of migration are causing unsustainable pressures on our public services and we can see that the NHS is creaking under the strain. It's time to take back control - to ensure we can protect our most loved institutions, and focus public spending on our priorities.'

Notes to editors

475,000 births in England and Wales to women from other EU countries

According to new figures released by the UK Statistics Authority:

• Between 2005 and 2014, there were 475,935 live births to mothers who were EU citizens (UK Statistics Authority, 15 March 2016, link).

• The number of births to EU mothers rose from 24,942 in 2005 to 64,067 in 2014, an increase of 157% (UK Statistics Authority, 15 March 2016, link).

• This is the equivalent of adding a city the size of Manchester to the UK population (population is 503,100) (ONS, 2012, link).

• With the estimated cost of maternity care in the NHS being £2,800, the cost of providing NHS services to those families could be over £1.33bn (NHS Commissioning Board, July 2012, link).

• The numbers of live births to UK nationals/UK born has not increased year on year and remained broadly static between 507,000 and 541,000 each year. By deducting from the total live births, the numbers from mothers born in the EU and in the UK, it can also be seen that the number of live births to non-EU born mothers has also remained steady between approximately 109,000 and 130,000 during the period. Between 2005 and 2014 the proportion births to women originally born in the UK was 79% and fell to 73% by 2014. Between 2005 and 2014, the proportion births to women originally born outside of the UK and outside of the EU was 17% and rose slightly to 18% by 2014. Therefore, the women originally from other EU member states are giving birth to children at higher growth rates than UK born mothers and non-EU born mothers.

 

The NHS is under strain

 

The financial position of NHS providers’ has deteriorated in recent years, as the chart below shows: 

Source: Department for Health

NHS providers have recorded net deficits in the last two financial years, with NHS Trusts recording a net deficit of £484 million and NHS Foundation Trusts recording a net deficit of £353 million in 2014-2015 (Department of Health, 2015, link).

In the first nine months of the financial year 2015-2016, NHS Trusts and Foundation Trusts recorded a net deficit of £2.26 billion (£622 million worse than planned). The forecast deficit for the financial year 2015-2016 is £2.37 billion. The regulators identified ‘rising demand’ as one of the principal reasons why ‘NHS providers continue to face sustained operational and financial challenges’ (NHS Trust Development Authority/Monitor, 25 February 2016, link).

 

Increased immigration from the European Union

 

In the last twenty years, net migration from countries in the European Union has risen dramatically.

 Source: ONS, 2015, link

Between 1995 and 2003, net EU migration did not exceed 35,000 persons per year. Since 2004, it has never been lower than 50,000 persons per year, with net migration from the EU higher than 100,000 persons per year in four of the last ten years, reaching a record of 174,000 in 2014. Since 2004, 1.073 million more persons have come to the UK from the EU than have migrated from the UK to the EU, the equivalent of adding a city the size of Birmingham to the UK population (ONS, 2012, link).

 

Rising demand for NHS services: GP registrations

 

In April 2013, there were 56.0 million patients registered with a general practice (Health and Social Care Information Centre, 2013, link). In January 2016, there were 57.5 million patients registered with a general practice (Health and Social Care Information Centre, 2016, link). The table summarises the statistics:

Source: Health and Social Care Information Centre

The table shows that in less than three years, the number of patients has registered with a general practice has increased by 1.498 million or by 2.67%.

 

Rising demand for NHS services: accident and emergency

 

Demand for NHS services is rising substantially.

Source: NHS England, November 2015, link

The graph above shows the number of attendances at accident and emergency over the last twenty years. While the number of those attending was relatively stable between 1995-1996 and 2002-2003, it has risen very sharply since. The table below summarises the results:

The table shows that the number of A&E attendances has increased from 14.0 million in 2002-2003 to 22.4 million in 2014-2015, an increase of 59.16% in the last thirteen years. Since 2004-2005, NHS England has also collected statistics on the number of hospital admissions from accident and emergency.

Source: NHS England, November 2015, link

The graph shows that admissions to hospital from accident and emergency have increased from 2.8 million in 2004-2005 to 4.0 million in 2014-2015, an increase of 42%. There has also been a substantial increase in the number of persons waiting more than four hours in accident and emergency, as the graph below shows:

Source: NHS England, November 2015, link

Between 2003-2004 and 2014-2015, the number of persons waiting more than 4 hours for treatment in accident and emergency increased from 92,663 to 304,292, an increase of 228%.

 

Rising demand for NHS services: hospital treatment

 

Waiting times between referral and admission to hospital in England have also been increasing in recent years.

Source: NHS England, November 2015, link

The graph shows that the median waiting time from referral to treatment in hospital has risen substantially over the last five years. There has also been a considerable fall in the number of persons waiting fewer than 18 weeks for treatment.

Source: NHS England, November 2015, link

The graph shows that the proportion of patients waiting less than 18 weeks from referral until treatment in hospital has fallen from 92.0% in April 2010 to 85.5% in September 2015.